Insider Advantage for the Southern Political Report (8/19, likely voters):
Kay Hagan (D): 40
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 40
(MoE: ±4.0%)
Hooah. Those are some damn fine numbers for Kay Hagan, and while it’s too early to tell if this is part of a coming polling trend, this could be a sign that the negative ad campaign by the DSCC, Majority Action and most recently, MoveOn.org, may be having some effect on Dole’s favorables. Hagan herself has taken back to the airwaves recently with a series of new ads – certainly also a key part of the equation.
Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 45-43 in North Carolina. Hagan currently outperforms Obama among white voters (who break 54-33 for McCain, and 46-34 for Dole), but lags Obama’s performance among African-Americans (who favor Obama by 75-17, but Hagan only by 61-24). If Hagan can cut down on cross-over voting among black voters and make a steady gain among whites, she could be in a good position for an upset by election day.
Encouraging numbers, all around.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.
VA, NM, AK, CO, NH, OR, MN, MS, NC. All now either D leads or single digit R leads. Unfortunately that includes Benedict Lieberman.
I have been beating the Hagan drum since February, so this pleases me greatly. Assuming this isn’t an outlier, (and IA is a pretty good pollster) I think this race belongs at the very top of the 2nd tier, behind only VA, NM, NH, CO, AK.
Someone debated me extensively that MS-B was a better shot than NC. It’s been awhile since we have seen MS-B numbers, but this proves my point, IMO.
http://www.southernpoliticalre…
I feel like a spoiled kid getting everything he wants for Christmas. There’s so much good news its almost unbelievable. Kagan, Rice, Martin; it just keeps getting better and better.
As bad as Zogby IMO.
Doesn’t mean the race isn’t close, though.
Is that in line with other polls of NC? It seems weighted too strongly for our side. Even if that’s the case, it’s clear that Hagan has significantly narrowed the gap thanks to that ad blitz. Let’s hope the DSCC and friends can keep up this level of attack against Dole.
That sounds way out of line. That sounds much higher than the other polls out on the race.